Kamis, 24 Mei 2012

Dollar trades at 97 cents

Dollar trades at 97 cents

UPDATE: THE Aussie dollar is slightly lower, trading in a tight range throughout the morning, ahead of the release of Chinese economic data.

At noon, the dollar was trading at 97.56 US cents, down from 97.74 cents yesterday.

Last night, the Australian dollar fell as low as 96.90 US cents, its lowest level since November 28.

CMC markets foreign exchange dealer Tim Waterer said there was not much of a reaction in currency markets after a summit of EU leaders ended.

The meeting showed that France and Germany are divided on how to resolve the euro zone debt crisis, particularly on the issue of the European Central Bank issuing its own eurobonds.

"We had a marginal rise in Asian equity markets, which is helping support the currency," Mr Waterer said.

"We're still having no buying impetus for the currency today, that may come if we happen to get a good reading in the Chinese PMI."

This afternoon, the May HSBC purchasing managers index from China will be released.

"Given the market is still very much risk averse due to the situation in Europe, if that number is below expectations tha t could send the Aussie retreating towards the 97.00 cents," he said.

Meanwhile, the Australian bond market was stronger at noon.

At noon, the June 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.915 (implying a yield of 3.085 per cent), up from 96.890 (3.110 per cent) yesterday.

The June three-year bond futures contract was at 97.630 (2.370 per cent), up from 97.620 (2.380 per cent).

In overnight trade, early on Thursday morning, the three-year contract hit an all-time high of 97.700.

ForexNews.com

US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar continues to defy overbought technical studies to push higher but the S&P 500 is conspicuously lacking of direction near familiar levels.

S&P 500 â€" Prices continue to tread water between 1292.90 and 1322.10, the October 27 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. A break higher exposes the 38.2% Fib at 1341.70. Alternatively, a daily close below support initially exposes 1272.60.

US_Dollar_Continues_to_March_Higher_as_SP_500_Treads_Water_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL â€" Prices continue to test resistance-turned-support at 90.49, with a break lower initially exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 88.54. Near-term resistance lines up at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low, with a push above that targeting the February 2 low at 95.41.

US_Dollar_Continues_to_March_Higher_as_SP_500_Treads_Water_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD â€" Prices recoiled from resistance marked by the 1600/oz figure as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1599.17, taking out support at 1582.10 marked by the 38.2% level and exposing the next downside objective at 1560.98. A break below this boundary exposes the 1522.50-1532.45 area. The 1582.10 level is acting as resistance.

US_Dollar_Continues_to_March_Higher_as_SP_500_Treads_Water_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR â€" Prices continue to push higher after taking out resistance in the 10134-41 area marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion and the October 2011 swing high. The bulls target the 100% level at 10241 as the next major upside objective. RSI studies are at their most overbought since prices set the last major top however, warning that the treat of a pullback is significant. The 10134-41 region is now recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_Continues_to_March_Higher_as_SP_500_Treads_Water_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Continues to March Higher as S&P 500 Treads Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

ForexNews.com

Rabu, 23 Mei 2012

UK Pound Starts To Strengthen Against The Australian Dollar

UK Pound Starts To Strengthen Against The Australian Dollar

Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar

The suggestion that the reserve Bank of Australia may make further interest rate cuts in the months ahead is weighing on the value of the Australian Dollar. So too is the slowdown in Chinese economic activity.

Also influential is the change of heart amongst international investors who are less inclined to buy into the high yielding interest rates that Australia offers because they are fearful of events in Europe undermining the Aussie Dollar and causing them to lose money in exchange rate movements.

In essence, having driven the weakening Aussie Dollar to the highest level since last October, the Pound lost some of that momentum and dropped three cents. It looks set to fall a little further and we are likely to see A$ 1.56 before any turnaround in this short term decline.

Events in Europe are strengthening the Pound but the Aussie Dollar is largely powered by investor sentiment and investors are fickle beasts so we should not be convinced by any of these spikes and troughs until they breach significant technical levels.

That hasn’t happened on either the upside or downside in the Sterling â€" Australian Dollar exchange rate so, it is best to plan using A$ 1.56 and A$ 1.62 as your outer limits in the short term.

Thanks to the folks at halofinancial for providing this analysis

Article Popularity: 1%

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ForexNews.com

Are Momma’s Boys to Blame for the Euro Crisis?

Are Momma’s Boys to Blame for the Euro Crisis?

Noting the confluence of topics about the baby boomer generation and financial woes of our youth today, I had this nifty chart sent to me today. Many of you may have seen it but it is interesting nonetheless. Basically, this is a chart comparing the CDS’s of European countries against the percentage of males living at home.

Many online blogs and advice sites seem to have a common message which says to not move back home no matter what. There is something to be gained by putting it out there and having to scrape by on your own for a few years while you find solid footing. I’ve even seen articles which point to employers preferring candidates who don’t live at home because they are out on the edge and don’t have the safety net that living at home provides.

Obviously, correlation doesn’t equal causation but I think it raises a decent question. Does living at home create more complacent men who are less ready to strike out into the world? I’ve always struggled to find an opinion on this as I think that moving home can certainly be beneficial until you get a decent job (or during an unpaid internship) but there is a lot to be said for having to strike out on your own and support yourself. What do you guys think? Obviously living at home for a 26 year old man isn’t desirable but is it really as terrible as it is made out to be? Is it contributing to the current financial malaise?

ForexNews.com

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.23

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.23

The market has now taken out some major resistance by 10,100 to open the door for fresh upside and a bullish continuation over the coming weeks. Next key resistance comes in by the 10,300 area, although, with daily studies now overbought, look for opportunities to buy on dips back towards 10,000 where a fresh higher low is now sought out.

ForexNews.com

Rupee hits 56 versus dollar, Reserve Bank cautious

Rupee hits 56 versus dollar, Reserve Bank cautious

Last Updated: Wed, May 23, 2012 14:42 hrs

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The rupee dropped to a record low against the dollar on Wednesday, sparking mild intervention from a RBI seen by traders as reluctant to be more aggressive against such a strong down trend.

The rupee touched the symbolically significant level of 56 to the dollar as concerns about the euro zone prompt global risk aversion and expose India's domestic vulnerabilities, most prominently a widening current account deficit and sluggish policy reforms.

The rupee has now fallen more than 5 percent this year against the dollar to make it the worst-performing Asian currency monitored daily by Reuters. It has dropped more than 13 percent from its 2012 high reached in February.

Currency traders say the slide in the rupee in recent sessions has been made easier by a cautious Reserve Bank of India which has refrained from heavy dollar selling.

"If there is global risk aversion, how can the RBI defend the currency? The conditions prevailing are such that the fall in the rupee is justified," said Ashtosh Raina, head of foreign exchange trading at HDFC Bank.

However, inaction carries dangers of its own, traders said, because it would deepen an impression of a central bank that is unwilling to take action. It does have measures to hand, such as selling dollars to oil importers, they said.

Still, it is important for the RBI to intervene in the market from time to time to be able to stem any steep fall, C. Rangarajan, the chairman of the prime minister's economic advisory council, told television channel CNBC-TV18.

"Sometimes markets always have a tendency to overshoot. I think if the impression goes that it will not intervene at all, it will have an adverse impact," Rangarajan said.

The drop on Wednesday to 56 per dollar marked the sixth consecutive day tha t the currency had hit a record low. The RBI's intervention, which dealers described as mild, was the first since Thursday.

The currency was weighed down by relentless dollar demand from oil importers and other companies.

Traders are looking ahead to an RBI board meeting scheduled for Thursday in Mussoorie, although the central bank tends not to make major announcements following such meetings.

The central bank has taken several measures to stem the rupee's slide, including raising deposit rates for non-resident Indians and forcing exporters to convert half of their foreign currency holdings into rupees, but none has had any notable imp a ct.

The RBI has shied away from action that traders believe would make a significant difference, including most immediately selling dollars directly to oil importers.

Nomura argues such a move would reduce market dollar demand by $ 8.8 billion per month, or the average monthly value of petroleum and crude imports in the last fiscal year.

However, such a move would expose the central bank to greater market risk and erode its already diminishing stockpile of dollars.

Some observers expressed sympathy with the RBI's position, given stronger actions carry their own risks.

"There are costs associated with each response and these in any case will only be stop-gap measures that won't address the underlying macro imbalances including the unsustainably large CA (current account) deficit," CLSA economist Rajeev Malik wrote in a recent note.

ForexNews.com

Selasa, 22 Mei 2012

Austerity imperils euro: Greece’s left

Austerity imperils euro: Greece’s left

The leader of Greece's radical left party, Syriza, has warned the European Union that the German-imposed tough economic measures could eventually overthrow the eurozone in its entirety.

Speaking upon arrival in Germany on Tuesday, Alexis Tsipras, a frontrunner in Greece’s forthcoming repeat elections, stressed that Athens’ international creditors should confirm their “errors” and change their policies "to avoid a catastrophe."

Meanwhile, European leaders have expressed hope that Greece’s second parliamentary elections, expected on June 17, would produce a strong government and put an end to the country’s political and economic turmoil.

European officials also insisted that the outcome of the vote would determine whether Greece stays in the 17-nation bloc or not, stressing that in any case the new administration must comply with the austerity measures the country agreed to with its European neighbors in exchange for endorsement of the second financial bailout.

The 37-year-old leader of the Radical Left party reiterated his plan to abandon the tough spending cuts, but said that he would not seek to leave the eurozone.

"To the contrary, it would mean that we have a chance of saving the euro," he added.

However, he warned that if the EU leaders continue insisting on their "wrong solutions of austerity" measures, they could finally force Greece out of eurozone and that "would represent a much greater danger for the euro."

Labeled as the “Greek Che Guevara,” Tsipras also declared that saving Greece from economic turmoil should be in the eurozone’s own interest, because "if the Greek patient cannot be treated, then the crisis will spread to all of Europe."

Greece will hold new parliamentary elections in less than a month after previous polls earlier in May failed to give any party an absolute majority.

Syriza, which is expected to win the coming votes, came in second in the first elections due to its pledge to overturn the controversial austerity measures.

SAB/GHN/MA

ForexNews.com

Asian Stocks, Euro Fall on Greece Exit Concerns

Asian Stocks, Euro Fall on Greece Exit Concerns

Enlarge image Asian Stocks Slide

Asian Stocks Slide

Asian Stocks Slide

Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan.

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Asian stocks fell, reversing a two- day advance, and oil declined on concern that Greece is making preparations to quit Europe’s currency union. Australian and New Zealand currencies slumped and the euro dropped.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) dropped 1 percent as of 9:58 a.m. in Tokyo. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.3 percent, after the benchmark erased gains in the final hour of trading yesterday. Oil declined 0.2 percent and copper fell 0.8 percent. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both weakened 0.5 percent. The euro slid 0.2 percent, extending the biggest loss in 10 weeks yesterday.

Greece is considering preparations to leave the 17-nation currency, Dow Jones reported yesterday, citing former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos even as the Group of Eight nations urged the nation to stay in the euro zone. The concern overshadowed a report showing an improvement in U.S. home sales in April and heightened speculation Europe and China will step up efforts to bolster global economic growth.

“The comments watered down optimism ahead of the European summit,” said Kim Young Sung, a fund manager in Seoul at Samsung Asset Management, which manages $ 98.3 billion. “There is uncertainty whether the actions being offered by the EU today will prevent the Greek exit.”

The Australian dollar traded at a six-month low of 97.65 cents and the so-called kiwi reached 75.16 cents, a level not seen since mid-December. South Korea’s won retreated 0.6 percent to 1,171.05 per dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net

ForexNews.com

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.22

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.22

The market has now taken out some major resistance by 10,100 to open the door for fresh upside and a bullish continuation over the coming weeks. Next key resistance comes in by the 10,300 area, although, with daily studies now overbought, look for opportunities to buy on dips back towards 10,000 where a fresh higher low is now sought out.

ForexNews.com

United States of America:American Eagle CFO Joan Hilson quits

United States of America:American Eagle CFO Joan Hilson quits


American Eagle Outfitters Inc. announced that its chief financial officer, Joan Hilson, is stepping down. An active search for a successor is currently underway. Ms. Hilson will work with the company through the end of July 2012 to ensure an orderly transition.

Effective immediately, Scott Hurd, AEO’s vice president and controller, will lead day-to-day management of the finance team, and assume the roles of interim principal accounting officer and interim principal financial officer until a successor is appointed.

Robert Hanson, chief executive officer, stated, “Joan has been a dedicated member of the AEO team for more than six years. On behalf of the company, I’d like to thank her for her contributions. I also appreciate Joan’s support during my transition and wish her all the best in her future endeavors.”

“AEO is a great company with tremendous potential,” said Hilson. “I am grateful for the experience of working with such a talented group of people.”

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. is a leading global specialty retailer offering high-quality, on-trend clothing, accessories and personal care products at affordable prices under its American Eagle Outfitters, Aerie and 77kids brands.

ForexNews.com

Senin, 21 Mei 2012

Greece must buy into austerity or exit euro: Britain

Greece must buy into austerity or exit euro: Britain

CHICAGO: British PM David Cameron has issued his bluntest warning yet to Greece that voters need to "meet their commitments" as a member of the eurozone in elections next month or leave the currency union.

Speaking at the Nato summit in Chicago, and three days before a crucial EU meeting, the PM said the leaders of the eurozone must now prepare for either outcome and be ready for the repercussions of the Greek vote, set for 17 June. The poll was called after Greek parties failed to form a new government earlier this month.

"It has to be absolutely clear there is a choice: they can vote to stay in the eu rozone and meet their commitments , or they can vote to give up on their commitments and effectively give up on the eurozone," he said.

No one could tell Greece's parties what to do, but Cameron can have left them in no doubt of how he feels. "The choice Greece faces is maintaining its commitments and maintaining its place in the eurozone or deciding that's not the path it wants to take.

Cameron also defended the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, whose insistence on austerity has been blamed for preventing the G8 summit from making progress. "Obviously she wants to make sure that countries in the eurozone that signed up to all sorts of commitments meet those commitments . She did show some flexibility in terms of what more can be done on the growth agenda."

While Cameron appealed to Greek voters to face reality , the Deputy P M, Nick Clegg, pleaded with German taxpayers to be patient with the Greeks.

"Whilst I have a huge amount of sympathy with German taxpayers, it is not sustainable to believe that the eurozone can thrive through fiscal discipline alone," he said.

The Independent

ForexNews.com

Illicit outflow of money from India pegged at USD 104 billion

Illicit outflow of money from India pegged at USD 104 billion

The illicit outflow of money from India has been estimated at USD 104 billion as of December last year, according to a report of the Global Financial Integrity (GFI). This has been disclosed by the White Paper on black money tabled in Parliament on Monday.

But the report does not give any estimate of the government about either black money in India or the amount stashed away in banks abroad.

GFI is an international agency that promotes national and multi-lateral policies, safeguards and agreements aimed at curtailing the cross-border flow of illegal money.

During the same period, the illicit outflow from China has been estimated by the GFI at USD 2,467 billion. The report quoted a 1984 estimate to Rs 37 crore in black money in India as assessed by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

The White Paper said that one estimate made by Swiss national banks put the amount of Indian deposits in Swiss banks at about Rs 9,295 crore by the end of 2010.

The Swiss Ministry of External Affairs confirmed these figures when a reference was made by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs to them.

The paper said that from the table available on the website of Swiss national banks, it can be seen that the deposits of Indians in Swiss banks have decreased from Rs 23,373 crore in 2006 to Rs 9,295 crore in 2010.

ForexNews.com

Daily Forex Analysis – May 21, 2012

Daily Forex Analysis â€" May 21, 2012

[unable to retrieve full-text content]by forexcycle.com EURUSD Analysis. Being contained by 1.2624 (Jan 13 low) support, EURUSD rebounds from 1.2642 and breaks above the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.2642. Range trading between 1.2642 and 1.2900 would likely be seen in a couple of days. Another fall to re-test 1.2624 previous low support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the long term downtrend from 1.4938 (May 4, 2011 high) ForexNews.com

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.21

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.21

The market has now taken out some major resistance by 10,100 to open the door for fresh upside and a bullish continuation over the coming weeks. Next key resistance comes in by the 10,300 area, although, with daily studies now overbought, look for opportunities to buy on dips back towards 10,000 where a fresh higher low is now sought out.

ForexNews.com

Serbian dinar continues to drop against euro

Serbian dinar continues to drop against euro

BELGRADE -- The Serbian dinar is down by eight para or 0.1 percent Monday, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has announced.

The home currency therefore dropped to an official middle exchange rate of RSD 113.3754 for one euro.

Since the beginning of 2012, the central bank has sold a total of EUR 838.5mn on the interbank foreign exchange market so as to ensure smooth running of the foreign exchange market.

This year, the dinar hit its highest level against the single European currency on January 11 with the exchange rate at RSD 103.6922.

The dinar is 1.7 percent down on this time last month, and 14.4 percent down on the year.

On Friday, May 18, the indicative dinar-versus-dollar exchange rate was at RSD 89.0896, recording a 0.4 percent increase from the day before.

The dinar weakened against the U.S. dollar by 4.8 percent when compared to the level a month ago, and by 23.9 percent if compared to a year ago.

ForexNews.com

Minggu, 20 Mei 2012

Dollar could fall if Greece bails

Dollar could fall if Greece bails

THE Australian dollar could fall below US90¢ if Greece pulls out of the eurozone, the chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank warned.

Currency strategists say if Greece pulls out of the eurozone the dollar could fall much further.

Jim Eagles

THE Australian dollar could fall below US90¢ if Greece pulls out of the eurozone, the chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank warned as leaders from the G8 group of nations worked over the weekend to combat the region's financial turmoil.

The dollar fell to US98.24¢ on Friday, its lowest level in nearly six months, after Moody's downgraded 16 Spanish banks, and the Fitch Ratings agency reduced Greece's credit rating to CCC on fears that anti-austerity parties would win the country's new elections.

Currency strategists say if Greece pulls out of the eurozone the dollar could fall much further.

Last week the S&P/ASX200 suffered its worst five-day return since September, shedding 5.6 per cent in value. The local bourse shed 110.9 points on Friday, or 2.67 per cent, to 4046.5 points, its biggest one-day loss since November.

Not helping the local market were increasing concerns that the Chinese economy is slowing appreciably. The big miners were among the stocks sold off the most last week.

Read more at Brisbanetimes.com.au
 

ForexNews.com

Asia Recovers as G8 Calls Greece to Stay in EU

Asia Recovers as G8 Calls Greece to Stay in EU

Asian stocks open higher on Monday, as investors cheered support from world leaders for keeping Greece in the euro zone.

A summit of the G8 leading industrialized nations vowed to take all steps necessary to combat financial turmoil while revitalizing a global economy increasingly threatened by Europe's debt problems.

The FTSE CNBC Asia 100 Index

[.FTFCNBCA  Loading...      ()], which measures markets across Asia, climbed 0.3 percent.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei

[.FTFCNBCA  Loading...      ()] inched up 0.3 percent to 8,635.7, snapping its seventh straight week of losses, its longest such run since the third quarter of 2011. The broader Topix inched 0.2 percent higher to 726.6.

Japan Tobacco rose 0.9 percent. The Japanese government said on Friday it has asked investment banks to submit by May 30 their applications for the sale of shares in Japan Tobacco that could raise as much as 426 billion yen ($ 5.4 billion).

Seoul shares rose early, pushing back above the psychologically key 1,800 point level after an early rally in blue-chip technology shares that were beaten down last week.

Samsung Electronics climbed 2.2 percent while SK Hynix rose 2.1 percent to highlight broad early gains.

Samsung Electronics rose despite news its CEO and Apple's

[AAPL  Loading...      ()   ] chief, whose companies are embroiled in a bitter patent litigation, have been instructed by a U.S. federal judge to appear for court-supervised mediation.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI)

[.KS11  Loading...      () ] was up 1.2 percent at 1,804.39 points.

Australian shares rose 1 percent in early trade, as investors sought out bargains and steadied the market after it slumped to a six-month low last week on escalating fears of a euro zone break-up and slower Chinese growth.

Shares in global miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto led gains rising 2.1 and 1.1 percent respectively, after being sold off heavily last week.

Gold miner Newcrest rose 3 percent, after gold rose more than 1 percent on Friday as investors consolidated positions ahead of the weekend.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index

[.AXJO  Loading...      () ] rose 42 points at 4,088.7. The benchmark fell 2.7 percent on Friday and 5.6 percent over the week.

New Zealand's benchmark NZX 50 index fell 0.4 percent at 3,488.7, to a one-month low.

In Southeast Asia, Singapore's STI

[.FTSTI  Loading...      ()] dipped 0.1 percent, while Malaysia's KLCI [.KLSE  Loading...      () ] traded flat.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
ForexNews.com

Dollar inflows from exporters’ FX accounts to support rupee

Dollar inflows from exporters’ FX accounts to support rupee

Last Updated: Mon, May 21, 2012 01:10 hrs

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Having fallen to fresh lows thrice last week, the rupee is expected to get some respite, with dollar inflows from Exchange Earners Foreign Currency (EEFC) accounts and hopes that the central bank would take further steps to arrest the fall.

On Friday, the rupee fell to an all-time intra-day low of 54.91 a dollar before it closed at 54.49 against the greenback. The currency registered a depreciation of 1.5 per cent over the week.

In a circular dated May 10, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had given a fortnight for EEFC account holders to convert half of their dollar balances into rupees. “We may see flows of up to $ 2.5 billion from these accounts, which will help the rupee stabilise for some time,” said a foreign exchange dealer with a public sector bank.

Also, measures such as meeting the dollar demand of oil marketing companies directly and curbing speculative trading are expected from the central bank. The RBI, which does not target any exchange rate, has been selling dollars in the spot foreign exchange market on a daily basis to cut volatility. The central bank has sold $ 20 billion in the spot market since September. However, dollar strengthening on account of a global risk-off mode is adding to the rupee’s woes.

“Rupee weakness is driven by a strong dollar against global currencies and it would need unwinding of dollar strength to provide relief to the rupee. The RBI’s actions could only limit excessive traction between the dollar index and the dollar-rupee exchange rate,” said Moses Harding, head, economic & market research, IndusInd Bank. The dollar index against six major currencies rose to 81 levels last week.

“Now, the immediate support to watch in the dollar index is at 80.50, which could drive the rupee to 54.10. A further extension into the recent low of 79.50 would extend rupee gains to 53.50,” Harding added.

The rupee has been the worst performing currency in Asia since the start of this financial year. More pain may be in store as fresh triggers in the euro zone would add to the currency’s fundamental weakness. Analysts at Barclays expect the rupee to underperform the wider region as broad-based risk-aversion related to the euro zone exacerbates domestic concerns.

“Markets hold long-standing concerns about the country’s fiscal and currency account deficits. These fundamental issues are compounded by policy U-turns and uncertainty over the timing of plans to introduce a general anti-avoidance rule,” Barclays pointed out in a report.

ForexNews.com

UK & World News: Credit bunch: Reason for Greece coming Acropolis

UK & World News: Credit bunch: Reason for Greece coming Acropolis

Image 13 for 'People 20/05' gallery

Greece should have realised it was heading for bankruptcy when everlarger credit card bills came thumping through its letterbox.

Because countries - just like people - come Acropolis when they spend more on their plastic than they earn.

Greece went on a daring spending spree, maxed-out its credit cards and then simply borrowed even more to service the interest on its credit card loans... AND increase its spending limit again.

For eight years, between 1999 and 2007, public sector wages rose 50 per cent - faster than in any other eurozone country.

It was only when the world hit financial meltdown in 2008 that Greece lost its Aristotle and the game was up.

Two years later the Greeks had to come cap in hand to see the European Central Bank manager. They emerged with a s90billion overdraft but their credit rating was shot and they had to cut up the plastic.

But even that was not enough to sort out the family finances and last October they wer e back at the EU for another s110billion loan. It was agreed in February as long as the Greeks drastically cut spending.

And, just in case they were tempted to borrow more, the price of loans soared last week when their credit rating was downgraded even further from B minus to CCC. There was some good news for the Greeks as they have been let off over half their debt - meaning British banks will lose s5billion, German ones twice that amount and French financial institutions s18billion.

Mansions

Not surprisingly, the Greek's problems meant lenders took a hard look at other families on the eurozone housing estate.

The Spaniards had their credit rating lowered on Thursday and money men do not think the Irish and Portuguese households are good risks either.

If the mansions down the road belonging to Italy and France have to go on the market that will doom the euro because banks do not have the money to support them.

We Bri ts live in a different neighbourhood but we would also be dragged down if the eurozone becomes a sink estate because we flog 40 per cent of our goods there.

Greece went to the polls this month but are no nearer getting their house in order.

No party gained a majority and political leaders could not form a government, leaving caretaker Prime Minister Panagiotis Pikrammenos in charge. There will be another General Election next month.

And the troubled family has plenty of bitter medicine to swallow to cure its financial ills, proving difficult to stomach. Greeks have already made it clear in violent protests across the country that they don't like austerity up 'em.

Public sector workers have been told they must accept a 20 per cent pay cut, 15,000 will lose their jobs and another 30,000 civil servants will be laid off. They thought they had jobs for life but will only get 60 per cent of their salaries for a year with no guarantee of work after that. The minimum wage will fall from s600 a month to s480.

Older members of the Greek household will suffer as any pension worth more than s800 a month will be cut by a fifth with those who took early retirement before they were 55 losing 40 per cent. And workers will see income tax rise and tax-free allowances fall from s9,600 to s4,000.

Even the Brits who pop round for a visit will be hit as VAT on restaurant food goes from 13 to 23 per cent and booze, petrol and cigarettes will rise by a third. The Greeks will also slap luxury levies on yachts, swimming pools and cars.

The young will suffer as nearly 2,000 schools will be either closed or merged with others and health spending will be cut by s1.6billion between now and 2015.

Meanwhile the government is trying to sell the family silver including ports, airports, motorways, mines, electricity and water.

Companies will be able to cut payroll costs as wage bargaining is abolished.

Every Parthenon o pen to Greece is bad but Greeks must now decide which is the lesser of the evils when choosing MPs next month. Should the new government reject EU bailout conditions then Greece will crash out of the euro and go back to its old money, the drachma.

This means that, unlike now, it would have a currency it could devalue, improving its balance of payments by making exports cheaper and imports dearer.

But international experts believe that would take 20 per cent off the value of all Greece's goods and services and send inflation soaring to up to 50 per cent. That might wipe out any benefits from cheaper holidays for the 1.8 million Brits who go to Greece every year.

The big winners would be the 5,400 British pensioners who live in Greece and are paid in sterling. Their spending power would rise massively if a new devalued currency came in.

But other European countries would still have to help Greece because although it would leave the euro it would still b e in the EU.

All this would hurt Britain as international markets lose confidence.

Contagion 

Our banks would need to tighten their belts, making borrowing more expensive for home owners and businesses. That would hit growth, prolonging our current double-dip recession.

A report by Dutch bank Rabobank said France, Germany and EU bosses must "take immediate and decisive action to stop contagion ripping the region apart."

That, as Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said, is "the storm heading our way from the Continent."

Britain may be better placed than many to weather it but we are still going to get soaked.

ForexNews.com

Weaker euro zone nations need more support

Weaker euro zone nations need more support

LONDON - The euro zone can protect its currency if its stronger countries provide more support for the weaker to help them deal with their problems, British finance minister George Osborne said in a newspaper on Sunday.

The future of Europe's 17-country single currency bloc is under threat from a political stalemate in Greece, which could lead to its departure from the monetary union at unknown costs to the financial system and global economic stability.

"Euro zone countries must either stand behind their currency or face up to the prospect of Greek exit, with all the risks that could involve," Osborne wrote in The Sunday Times.

"How can they stand behind the euro? First, those countries with high deficits and low competitiveness need to carry on confronting their problems head on. But in the absence of flexible exchange rates, the economic and political barriers to dealing with those problems will only get worse without more support from the core of the euro zone."

He added that the euro zone must follow "the remorseless logic" of monetary union towards greater fiscal integration and "burden-sharing", with Eurobonds one possible option.

"Finally, the whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That means reforming welfare systems, investing in infrastructure, more job-friendly employment laws, better education and lower business taxes," he wrote.

Greek voters this month toppled a government that had agreed to painfully austere terms of an international bailout plan, and uncertainty hangs over the next election set for June 17.

Osborne's comments follow a remark made by British Prime Minister David Cameron that a government source said was a veiled suggestion that the European Central Bank should follow the example of the Bank of England by embarking on an asset purchase programme to lift economic growth in the euro zone.

"Clearly, just as Britain benefits from a strong government with a strong deficit reduction plan and strong banks but also an independent monetary policy giving us low interest rates, helping to push demand in the economy, so the euro zone I believe needs that approach as well," Cameron said at a summit of the Group of Eight major economies on Saturday.  

British officials are deeply worried about the impact that a break-up of the euro and a further deterioration of the euro zone crisis could have on Britain's recession-hit economy. The country is outside the euro zone but about 40 percent of its exports go to the single currency bloc.

The turmoil in the euro zone appears to be making Britain's membership of the larger European Union increasingly unpopular among voters, undermining support for Cameron's Conservative Party which leads the governing coalition.

In an opinion poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday newspapers, 46 percent of Britons said they would vote for Britain to leave the EU in a referendum, compared to the 30 percent who disagreed.

And 26 percent of Conservative voters would "seriously consider" switching their support to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), Britain's biggest anti-EU party, if an election were held now.

However, Conservative Justice Minister Kenneth Clarke said Britain's exit from the EU would be "disastrous".

"I can't think of anything more irrelevant to the present situation actually, nor personally can I think of anything more disastrous than the British leaving the European Union and deciding now is the moment to take up splendid isolation," he told Sky News television on Sunday.  

ForexNews.com

Iran finance minister: ‘Rest assured’ record oil prices over nuclear sanctions

Iran finance minister: ‘Rest assured’ record oil prices over nuclear sanctions

Yukiya Amano, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will fly to Iran Sunday.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Iran's finance minister tells CNN that oil prices could rise as high as $ 160 a barrel
  • "Rest assured there will be a considerable increase," the minister says
  • The chief of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency is heading to Iran for talks
  • G8 leaders urge Iran to cooperate with inspectors

(CNN) -- Iran's finance minister believes oil prices could rise as high as $ 160 a barrel thanks to sanctions over its nuclear program, a prediction that comes just as the chief of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency headed to Tehran on Sunday for high-level talks.

"We must pay close attention when we speak of oil revenues and sanctions against oil sales, who are the winners and the losers of such sanctions?" Shamseddin Hosseini told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" in an interview that airs Sunday.

"Indeed, it is difficult. But not just for Iran. And we can all rest assured that there will be a considerable increase in international oil market prices. Now, is this the best approach?"

The comments came as the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a carefully worded statement that its director-general, Yukiya Amano, was headed to Iran for talks on what it described only as "issues of mutual interest with high Iranian officials."

The trip raises speculation that Iran may be willing to grant IAEA inspectors access to sites to determine whether it is developing nuclear weapons.

The talks come at a critical time for Iran, whose economy has been crippled by sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union.

Eighty percent of Iran's foreign revenues are derived from oil exports, and an embargo by the EU set to go into effect in July will further devastate its economy.

But Hosseini said the embargo would also likely hurt the EU, which is grappling with its own weakened economy.

Oil prices as a result of the sanctions, he said, "will go considerably higher than $ 100 per barrel."

Even the International Monetary Fund "says as a result of these sanctions, oil prices will perhaps reach and hover around $ 160 per barrel," he said.

Hosseini gave little indication to Zakaria that Iran would be willing to abandon its nuclear program, which Tehran has consistently maintained is solely for the development of alternative energy.

"There are conversations and dialogues taking place currently, but there cannot be a hegemony and a double-standard in the treatment of member countries such as Iran," he said.

"If these principles can be understood and applied with mutual respect, I think we will be in a much better place. If we don't, we will witness a increase in international oil markets."

The Iranians met with the IAEA for the first time in three months in Vienna, Austria, last week and are expected to meet again Monday.

Later this week in Baghdad, Iran is set to continue talks over its nuclear program with world powers who make up the group known as P5+1: the United States, France, Russia, China, Britain and Germany.

Tensions over the country's nuclear program have roiled the Middle East, with Iran threatening earlier this year to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping lane, if sanctions were imposed on its exports of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Israel has said it may attack Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

During the height of tensions, oil prices soared to $ 110 a barrel. The price per barrel of crude oil finished last week at $ 92.50 per barrel.

In March, the IAEA noted what it called a sharp and troubling increase in Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities.

The United States and its allies suspect that Iran is evading international inspections and is developing nuclear weapons. As punishment, Western nations have slapped crippling sanctions on Iran.

Leaders of the so-called Group of Eight -- United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Russia -- called on Iran on Saturday to comply with the requirements of the U.N.'s watchdog agency to open its doors to nuclear inspectors.

In a declaration, the G8 leaders said they welcomed the resumption of talks.

The leaders called on Iran to engage "in detailed discussion about near-term, concrete steps that can, through a step-by-step approach based on reciprocity, lead towards a comprehensive negotiated solution which restores international confidence that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful," according to the declaration.

The G8 leaders also urged Iran to comply with international obligations to uphold human rights and fundamental freedoms, including the freedom of religion.

ForexNews.com

Sabtu, 19 Mei 2012

Vodafone weathers European storm

Vodafone weathers European storm

Booming demand for mobile internet access in the UK and strong growth in emerging markets will help Vodafone weather the financial storm in southern Europe on Tuesday.

The mobile phone giant’s shares approached their pre-financial crisis peaks in early 2012 but have weakened in recent months amid fears that its stellar growth is beginning to slow.

The Newbury-based firm’s performance has been hit by recessions in Spain and Italy while the fees it can charge for connecting mobile calls are being reduced in markets such as the UK. These effects are offsetting gains from its rapid growth in India and Turkey, and from growing demand for data as people use smartphones to get online.

Its last update disappointed investors after its European business suffered a 1.7% underlying revenue decline in the final quarter of 2011, helping slow the group’s growth for the third quarter in a row.

But Will Draper, an analyst at Espirito Santo, thinks Vodafone will regain momentum in the three months to the end of March as it increases market share in mobile data. He also thinks the decline in its southern European markets will bottom out.

The UK will grow by just 1%, slightly down on the 1.1% it reported in the previous quarter, despite it benefiting from slightly softer cuts to its termination rates. The City expects Vodafone’s underlying profits to fall £11.4 billion, slightly down on last year’s £11.8 billion. However, last year’s figure was boosted by contributions from its stakes in French business SFR and in Polkomtel in Poland, which have now been sold.

Meanwhile, the miserable spring weather is set to further slow the UK growth of online fashion retailer ASOS by dampening demand for summer fashion.

The group, which targets 16 to 34-year-olds with its own brand of clothes based on outfits first worn by celebrities, was previously a stock market darling but it has seen its shares slide by a third over the past year amid signs of a loss of momentum. It disappointed markets when it said UK sales increased 4% in the first three months of 2012, compared to 10% in the previous quarter, while the rate in the US more than halved to 69%.

Jean Roche, an analyst at Panmure Gordon, said industry figures showed online fashion saw its slowest-ever April growth amid the record rainfall. This is likely to have hit sales at ASOS, although she added that any falls in the company’s share price should be seen as a chance to buy into “a long-term global growth opportunity”.

The group will shrug off fears about its growth on Thursday when it reports a 40% rise in profits to £40.3 million in the year to the end of March â€" in-line with City expectations â€" helped by margin improvements.

ForexNews.com

SURVIVING THE EURO SHOCK: Britons rush to ditch euros…but some will buy a half-price holiday home

SURVIVING THE EURO SHOCK: Britons rush to ditch euros…but some will buy a half-price holiday home

By Richard Dyson And Jo Thornhill

|

Christine and John Watson got the asking price for their spacious French home in Poilhes on the Canal du Midi

'Lucky': Christine and John Watson, with Bonnie, left, and Ruby, got the asking price for their spacious French home in Poilhes on the Canal du Midi

Britons are switching record sums between pounds and euros as fears grow over the future of the single currency and the safety of Continental banks.

But while hundreds of thousands of people are bringing money back to sterling accounts in British banks, many others are doing the opposite.

They are buying euros, often with an eye to purchasing savagely discounted properties on the Continent, or refurbishing the properties that they already own.

Among the uncertainty and panic, reports are emerging of desirable properties in Greece and elsewhere selling for half the price of just three months ago.

Mark Bodega of foreign exchange firm HiFX in Windsor, Berkshire, says euro-to-sterling transactions are almost treble their usual level ‘in spite of the euro’s recent weakening’. He says: ‘Fear is clearly driving these transactions.’

But the traffic is far from one-way. Rival forex firm MoneyCorp says that while euro-to-sterling deals have doubled in the past month, transactions the other way have mushroomed even more.

‘The majority of transactions between the currencies is still sterling buying euros,’ says MoneyCorp’s David Kerns. ‘Britons are as much as ever in love with the idea of buying a home in France or Italy and this turmoil is providing an extra enticement.’

Euro-to-sterling transactions at Caxton FX, a low-cost forex firm popular with British owners of homes in eurozone countries, were last week running at three times regular levels. ‘A proportion of clients are definitely set on bringing money back to Britain,’ says managing director James Hickman.

‘This is partly due to nervousness about the security of European banks â€" people just don’t feel comfortable.’

But Hickman says Caxton is processing floods of transactions in the opposite direction as wealthy Britons order millions of euros. ‘It’s a double benefit for people wanting to own properties in the eurozone,’ he says. ‘The currency is getting cheaper, and so are the properties.’

The British-based owners of an estimated 1.1?million properties in the eurozone, who need to transfer money regularly to cover the cost of their holiday homes, are also pushing more cash abroad at today’s lower euro rates, Hickman says.

Elisabeth Dobson of World First, another London-based forex specialist, says people are making greater use of ‘forward contracts’ to hedge against further volatility. This can protect future transactions in either direction. ‘Those trying to sell property in the eurozone are more anxious and we have seen a rise in people wanting to buy forward contracts at today’s rates,’ she says.

‘It gives consumers peace of mind that when their property is sold they can transfer their euros into sterling at today’s rates, even if that doesn’t happen for another year.’

Retired Ministry of Defence civil servant John Watson, 76, and his wife Christine, 72, sold their home in southern France in February after becoming concerned about the situation in the eurozone. They had lived in France for nine years.

They sold their four-bedroom detached house with swimming pool and workroom for 280,000 euros, netting them just over £234,000. By contrast, converting the same sum at Friday’s price would have left them with £10,000 less at £224,098.

‘We had been thinking about coming home for two years,’ says John. ‘We are both getting older and we want to be nearer our children.

‘We had been watching the value of the euro decline so we bit the bullet. I think we were lucky. We sold quickly and at the asking price. If we had not sold at that time, we’d be much worse off.’

John and Christine, who are living in Corby, Northamptonshire, with their standard poodles Ruby and Bonnie, say many of their expat friends still in France are not overly concerned.

But John says he is aware of some panic. ‘One couple we knew sold their gite and put all the cash into Australian dollars, such was their fear about the eurozone,’ he says.

All firms report big increases in calls from clients seeking advice. Hickman says: ‘The most common question of all is, ‘‘Will a Greek exit from the euro trigger an entire currency breakdown?’’?’

And the answer? ‘We tell them that while we believe Greece will eventually exit, we expect the process to be relatively orderly, and that other countries will not follow,’ he says.

This is a growing consensus among economists and market-watchers. No one knows how much chaos would result from an exit, if it happened â€" but the prospect has caused the price of properties in Greece and elsewhere to fall.

Spyros Mantzos of estate agent A Property In Greece in Chislehurst, Kent, says: ‘A fall in values of up to 40 per cent since February means British buyers can get in at almost half price, if you factor in the stronger pound.

‘Investors are snapping up properties for bargain prices. Interest today is double the level of last year. Greece is now decidedly cheap.’ Top locations remain Crete and Corfu.

Les Calvert of international online estate agent property-abroad.com in Hartlepool, County Durham, says: ‘Over the past month we have seen interest soar, with Greece pushing up into the top five. A month ago it was not even in the top ten. It’s a buyer’s market.’

But Simon Conn, an overseas property and mortgage specialist consultant in Hove, East Sussex, says: ‘Banks are still lending in Italy and Spain, but no lender will offer on a property in Greece. That means cash buyers only.’

Lynnette Reynolds, 55, and husband Paul, 57, from Bristol, are among those taking advantage of the favourable euro exchange rate. Last week they converted £125,000 into euros at a rate of 1.24 to buy a two-bedroom 19th Century cottage in Brittany.

They are close to completing, but Lynnette and Paul, who work as child-minders following his redundancy from his job as a research scientist at the University of Bristol, were worried about exchange rate fluctuations so they bought a forward contract through World First to lock into the rate when it hit 1.24 last week.

Lynnette says: ‘The rate could go higher, but we are cautious people and didn’t want to wait in case sterling started to fall in value. As it turned out, we are better off than if we had bought the euros the week before.’

Additional reporting  by Toby Walne

ForexNews.com

Drive From The Rising Sun: Why Japan’s Car Companies Are Moving Manufacturing Overseas

Drive From The Rising Sun: Why Japan’s Car Companies Are Moving Manufacturing Overseas

Japan's vaunted automakers may soon stop building cars in their homeland for export as a soaring yen combines with Mother Nature's mood swings and an aging population saps the strength of the Nipponese domestic market, driving the companies across the oceans and far from their birthplace.

Last week, Nissan Motor Company Ltd. (Tokyo: 7201) CEO Carlos Ghosn said that the automaker was seeking to "minimize exports from Japan." The very same day, Honda Motor Company Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) announced that it planned to stop exporting hybrids and instead produce them solely in the markets where they are intended to be sold. In 2011, Honda discontinued production of Civic model cars in Japan in favor of international production. And even Mazda Motor Corporation (Tokyo: 7261), which has been slow to set up plants outside of Japan, has recently broken ground on new factories in Mexico to produce Mazda 2 and 3 cars as well as engines.

These moves are a bitter pill for Japan and its foundering economy - and also a peek into Japan's future. Just a few decades ago, when Japanese companies were audaciously acquiring such international icons as Pebble Beach Golf Course and Rockefeller Center, Burberry, Aquascutum, Sun Chemicals and Columbia Studios, fears were rife in the West that Japan was going to dominate the global economy, eclipsing the U.S. in importance and innovation.

Nobody raises those concerns anymore. As Japan's automakers begin the process of closing the door on their domestic operations, they will leave a bedraggled economy that last year fell behind China to No. 3 in Gross Domestic Product and offers little reason for optimism. By all accounts, Japan's GDP will continue to shrink inexorably as its population ages and the dynamism of its domestic market weakens.

"Partly it's a hedge against currency; it's also to be closer to customers," said Robert Cole, Professor Emeritus at the University of California Berkeley Haas School of Business and visiting researcher at Japan's Doshisha University. "And the domestic market is not growing anymore. They (automakers) must go global."

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The Big Bad Yen

If anything is accelerating the move by automakers to leave their Japanese operations behind it is the strength of the country's currency. The Yen hit a record low of 75.31 to the dollar last year and has fallen almost 32 percent in the past five years. A strong yen makes Japanese exports less competitive globally and cuts into the value of overseas earnings when repatriated into yen. According to analysts, for each yen that the dollar loses in value, Toyota Motor loses about 30 billion yen in earnings per quarter.

"The pressure has increased on Japanese manufacturers across the board in recent years to move manufacturing overseas because of the sky-high yen," said James Lincoln, Mitsubishi Chair in International Business and Finance at the University of California Berkeley Haas School of Business.

Earlier this month, as part of an alliance with Renault and Daimler, Nissan broke ground on a new factory in Decherd, Tenn., which will employ 400 employees. The company also announced that it would take a $ 450 million stake in Russian car company OAO Avtovaz, maker of Lada-brand cars. The Russian market is the fastest growing automotive market in Europe.

Nissan is likely to extend its global footprint even further in the near future. CEO Ghosn said that if the exchange rate remains at its current levels the company would be forced to move more of its production overseas, including its luxury Infiniti brand models. "Without a doubt, we will have to do it," Ghosn said, "at 79 yen or 80 yen, most of the growth is going to take place outside Japan, if not all of it."

The Supply Chain Ouroboros

Last year's string of natural disasters laid bare another set of critical vulnerabilities for automakers with factories in Japan. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the subsequent nuclear disaster in Fukushima Prefecture as well as torrential flooding in Thailand disrupted supply chains for all of Japan's car companies and set back their production schedules by months.

Toyota and Honda, in particular, were hard hit as their Japanese factories and those of their suppliers were idled for long periods, delaying the launches of critical new models, like the Honda CR-V. Toyota's net income for fiscal year 2012, which encompasses the disasters and recovery period, fell 44 percent, to $ 3.56 billion and its worldwide production fell 8.4 percent in 2011. Last year, Honda lost 0.8 percent of its marketshare globally and its production fell 20.1 percent.

To better protect its global supply chain - in other words, to hedge against natural disasters and to avoid being overly dependent on any one region - Toyota has invested $ 565 million in U.S. and Canadian manufacturing facilities since February, hiring almost 1,000 employees and increasing North American capacity by 100,000 vehicles, 120,000 transmission and 100,000 engines annually. Meanwhile, Honda has decided to manufacture the Acura NSX in Marysville, Ohio and the Honda Fit at a new plant in Mexico. Between these two factories, Honda is ponying up more than $ 1.3 billion.

ForexNews.com

Europe’s debt crisis joins governments and banks at the hip

Europe’s debt crisis joins governments and banks at the hip

LONDON â€" The alarm over potential bank runs in Greece and Spain this week has highlighted an often-overlooked fact: Europe's debt crisis is also, in many ways, a major banking crisis.

In capitals such as Athens, Madrid and Rome, large portions of the sovereign debt racked up by spendthrift governments are owed to the countries' own banks, locking governments and the banks in an embrace so tight that disaster for one would almost certainly spell doom for the other.

International bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal have helped to keep not just their governments but also their banks afloat, as well as financial institutions in other parts of Europe with large exposure to those nations' debts.

Though worried investors have mostly focused on the dire consequences of government default, reports of depositors pulling out large sums in Greece and Spain are shifting attention to those beleaguered banking systems and the catastrophic effects of a full-on run.

On Friday, the Fitch ratings agency downgraded the creditworthiness of five Greek banks. That followed a similar demotion of 16 Spanish financial institutions by theMoody'sratings firm Thursday evening.

Neither of the two Mediterranean nations is yet experiencing anything close to a major run on their banks, analysts say. There are no lines of frightened customers desperate to withdraw cash, and the banks in both countries together hold hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of euros.

But with the euro crisis having reached yet another feverish pitch, stock markets and the values of banking shares are yo-yoing wildly.

"It's the uncertainty that's the principal reason for alarm in this," Iain Begg, an expert on European economy and finance at the London School of Economics, said Friday.

Investors were unsettled by a report that about $ 900 million was taken out of Greek banks on Monday alone, adding to the already steady flight of capital since Greece's debt problems broke open 21/2 years ago.

On Thursday, a newspaper report of a major withdrawal fromSpain'sBankia pushed the newly nationalized bank's shares into free fall until a government minister publicly denied that a run was taking place.

Many of Europe's debt-stricken countries are now caught up in a dangerous cycle. Cash-starved governments are being heavily financed by their nations' banks through massive bond purchases. But the banks' exposure to all that shaky sovereign debt has made it difficult for them to raise money on the open market because investors are skeptical.

That, in turn, increases the chances that the governments will have to step in and bail out the banks, giving rise to a situation akin to a dog chasing its tail until it finally collapses.

"The presumption in normal times is that the safest asset is the equivalent of a treasury bond," but that premise no longer holds, Begg said. "Once that starts to be undermined, it becomes a potential hole in the balance sheets of the banks."

In September, the International Monetary Fund warned that Europe's debt crisis could cost the region's banks nearly $ 400 billion.

In many ways, Spain has become the epitome of a banking system in distress.

Its financial institutions are weighed down by bad real estate loans left over from a property boom-gone-bust and by huge holdings of government debt. Spanish banks now hold the majority of the country's treasury bonds.

"It's very unsafe for a bank to buy debt in its own government, because it's like putting all your eggs in one basket," said Rolf Campos, an economist at Spain's IESE Business School. The outcome "depends on whether you drop the basket or not."

"If Spain is able to pay off its debt, then it won't be a problem. B ut if Spain has to default on some of its debt, which is not likely but is possible, it will have been a very bad investment decision."

The government last week unveiled a plan to force Spain's banks to come up with $ 40 billion to help balance out their toxic assets. But critics say the state could end up shouldering much of the cost of the banking reform, further degrading its own financial position.

Just how much trouble Europe's banks have had raising cash was revealed by Benoit Coeure, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank.

Last fall, it had become so difficult for banks in the 17-nation Eurozone to get commercial financing that "we were very close [to] having a collapse in the banking system in the euro area, which … would have also led to a collapse in the economy and to deflation," Coeure said in an interview broadcast Thursday on the BBC.

The ECB intervened by proving a stunning $ 1.3 trillion in unusually cheap lon g-term loans to European banks in December and February. The loans helped buoy the banks, but also indirectly propped up governments, because the banks used the money to buy more government bonds.

The move fueled rallies for Spanish and Italian debt, whose interest rates had begun creeping up to intolerable levels that could have forced Madrid and Rome to seek bailouts. But it further increased the co-dependency between governments and banks.

And the ECB itself is now a major holder of sovereign debt, including Greek bonds. A run on the banks in politically unstable Greece could trigger a collapse of the country's financial sector and a default by the government, leaving the ECB as much in the lurch as other bondholders.

"The European Central Bank itself is now a major creditor of Greece…. We don't quite know what'll happen if the European Central Bank is confronted with its paper being worthless," said Begg. "That's uncharted territory."

henry.chu@latimes.com

Times staff writer Chu reported from London and special correspondent Frayer from Madrid.

ForexNews.com

G-8 leaders put focus on European financial crisis

G-8 leaders put focus on European financial crisis

CAMP DAVID, Md. â€" Leaders of the major industrialized nations are prodding Germany to balance its push for European fiscal austerity with doses of stimulus spending to avoid an economic calamity that could reverberate worldwide.

Facing economic and political pressures at home, President Barack Obama and leaders of Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Great Britain, Russia, and Japan are huddling in the casual setting of Camp David's Laurel Lodge looking to build consensus even though a decisive plan of action seemed out of reach at this point.

Obama established the tone for the G-8 Friday after meeting with just-elected French President Francois Hollande, declaring that the aim of the summit is to promote both fiscal consolidation and a "strong growth agenda."

ForexNews.com

Gold Outlook Rests on G8 Summit, Eurozone PMIs and US Survey Data

Gold Outlook Rests on G8 Summit, Eurozone PMIs and US Survey Data

Gold_Outlook_Rests_on_G8_Summit_Eurozone_PMIs_and_US_Survey_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Gold Outlook Rests on G8 Summit, Eurozone PMIs and US Survey Data

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices mounted a swift recovery toward the end of last week as fears of a spreading crisis in the Eurozone and disappointing US economic news drove demand for alternative stores of value. An unexpectedly soft Philadelphia Fed print dented hopes that an accelerating US recovery will offset headwinds to global growth from sluggish conditions in Europe and Asia. The outcome marked only the second bit of significant data from the May set of activity surveys, tarnishing positive cues from the Empire Manufacturing print earlier in the week and pulling gold higher on inflation-hedge buying as traders sized up the uneven performance with minutes from the Fed’s April policy minutes. The release showed some policymakers made the case for a QE3 program in the event that growth falters.

Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks, citing the weak economy and mounting government debt. The announcement stoked fears that lenders in the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy (and possibly elsewhere) may buckle as Greek-born jitters metastasize region-wide. This unearthed the possibility of another broad-based credit crisis akin to the 2008 fiasco, driving investors to seek refuge in assets of intrinsic worth that don’t necessarily rely on well-functioning financial markets to derive and maintain their value.

The week ahead presents headline event risk along both themes driving gold prices. On the US data front, the focus is on the Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys as markets continue to expand their understanding of where world’s top economy stands in May. Expectations point to mixed results and traders will be keen to put the final outcomes in the context of last week’s news flow. The final revision of May’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge rounds out the docket. Soft readings are likely to fan the flames of QE3 speculation, driving gold higher. Scheduled remarks from the Fed’s Kocherlakota, Lockhart, Plosser and Dudley will be interpreted along the same lines.

Turning to the Eurozone, the tone for the week will be set by the G8 summit set to take place at Camp David over the weekend. Markets will be holding out hope for signs of an emerging multilateral response to ensure global financial markets are protected from contagion. The absence of concretely reassuring rhetoric is likely to add to gold’s upward momentum as a seemingly growing possibility of another market-wide rout buys demand. The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone PMI figures as well as Germany’s IFO survey of business confidence will color expectations of the degree of economic slowdown in the region. Soft outcomes will warn that sluggish performance threatens to sabotage precarious deficit-reduction efforts and amplify credit market stress. This too may prove gold-supportive if markets see the Eurozone issue as one with swelling global implications (a perception the G8 outcome is likely to establish in the near term).

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Jumat, 18 Mei 2012

Britain faces credit crunch II: And this time we may never recover, warns finance chief

Britain faces credit crunch II: And this time we may never recover, warns finance chief

By Jason Groves, James Coney and Tim Shipman

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Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said Greek withdrawal could spark a rerun of the dramatic lending squeeze

Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said Greek withdrawal could spark a rerun of the dramatic lending squeeze

Britain may be plunged into a recession and repeat of the credit crunch from which it will ‘never’ fully recover if Greece quits the euro, a leading Government adviser warned last night.

Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility which draws up the Government’s economic forecasts, said Greek withdrawal could spark a rerun of the dramatic lending squeeze which heralded the deepest recession since the 1930s.

In a bleak assessment, he said the fallout could cause permanent damage to Britain’s economy, saying there was a possibility that ‘you go down and you never quite get back up to where you started’.

The OBR has already slashed its growth forecast for the UK to 0.8 per cent, but Mr Chote said the result would be far worse unless eurozone leaders intervene now to resolve the Greek crisis.

In other developments:

  • Spanish-owned bank Santander moved to reassure savers it was not in danger of collapse after its UK arm was downgraded by credit rating agency Moody’s.
  • Britain, America and France used the G8 summit to put Germany under intense pressure to allow the European Central Bank to issue so-called Eurobonds to ease the crisis.
  • Greek officials said German Chancellor Angela Merkel had advised Athens to hold a referendum on whether the beleaguered country should remain in the euro.
  • Research by the Daily Mail revealed that more than £1.61billion of British savers’ cash is sitting in individual pensions and investments exposed to the ailing Spanish stock market.
  • An EU Commissioner said Brussels was preparing for a Greek exit from the euro, which he said would have ‘cataclysmic’ results for Greece.
  • Chancellor George Osborne said the ‘storms’ in the eurozone threatened to undo much of the economic progress in Europe made since the fall of the Berlin Wall more than 20 years ago.

Chancellor George Osborne said the ‘storms’ in the eurozone threatened to undo much of the economic progress in Europe, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel had advised Athens to hold a referendum

European stock markets slumped for the fifth consecutive day, with the FTSE 100 down 71 points. The index of Britain’s leading shares has now fallen by almost 12 per cent in two months, wiping £200billion off its value.

The biggest stock market fallers were Lloyds, which lost 6 per cent of its value yesterday, and Royal Bank of Scotland, which fell 5 per cent.

But attention in the UK was focused on high street bank Santander, which was one of 16 Spanish banks downgraded by Moody’s because of concerns about the fallout from the euro crisis.

Santander insisted savings in its 25million British accounts were safe.

Worried savers visiting branches were given leaflets explaining how the bank could be protected from the crisis in Spain. And branch managers were briefed on how to deal with the concerns of savers who feared their money was at risk.

Officials stressed that Santander, like other British banks, had strengthened its balance sheet since the credit crunch and was fully regulated by Britain’s Financial Services Authority.

All customers of banks are also covered by the savings safety net, the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which protects up to £85,000 per customer per bank.

The Spanish banking crisis has hit the British high street, with the news that Santander has had its credit rating cut

Panic: The Spanish banking crisis has hit the British high street, with the news that Santander has had its credit rating cut

Millions of Santander UK’s 25million accounts in Britain are never used because they are relics from the old Abbey National Building Society, and from former customers of Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, which it also took over. There are 5million active current accounts. It holds £121billion of savings from UK customers.

Research by the Mail shows that more than £1.61billion of British savers’ cash is held in individual pensions and investments which could be at risk on the Spanish stock market.

The money is directly invested through nearly 200 investment funds used by hundreds of thousands of ordinary savers to put money aside for the long term, typically used to build up a nest-egg in retirement or pay for children’s school or university fees.

It is likely the vast majority would not even realise their nest eggs have been exposed to this risky economy because many pensions are heavily invested in these funds.

The euro crisis dominated the opening of the G8 summit at Camp David yesterday. David Cameron, Barack Obama and Francois Hollande all called for Germany to boost the firewall behind the single currency to prevent economic contagion destroying the European economy.

A SHAKE OF THE HAND, BUT PM WARNS FRENCH: I'LL VETO CITY TAX

David Cameron and Francois Hollande had their first face-to-face meeting in Washington yesterday

David Cameron and Francois Hollande had their first face-to-face meeting in Washington yesterday

From Tim Shipman in Chicago

David Cameron threatened new French president Francois  Hollande with a second EU veto last night to protect the City  of London.

The Prime Minister went into  battle during their first face-to-face meeting over the French leader’s election pledge to put a new tax on financial transactions across Europe.

Downing Street officials made clear Mr Cameron is prepared to wield the British veto again to block new taxes emanating from Brussels. The Premier warned Mr Hollande his plans would cost Europe more than £160billion and 500,000 jobs.

Mr Cameron and Mr Hollande held tense talks after exchanging a firm handshake at the British ambassador’s residence in Washington before travelling to the G8 summit at Camp David in Maryland.

Tomorrow they will attend a Nato summit in Chicago. Officials described the meeting as a ‘getting to know you exercise’ after Mr Cameron miscalculated by publicly backing Mr Hollande’s rival Nicolas Sarkozy during the presidential elections.

No 10 insisted the encounter was ‘friendly’ but it was cut short by ten minutes and the two men did not engage in small talk.

Mr Cameron sought to make amends for his diplomatic blunder by inviting Mr Hollande to the UK next month to meet the Queen.

But the French president delivered a barbed comment about his snub. ‘I couldn’t meet David Cameron before the elections,’ he said. ‘I am all the happier to meet him afterwards.’

The two men found common cause over the future of the euro, with the Prime Minister backing Mr Hollande’s plans for eurobonds to underwrite the single currency.

But they clashed over the French president’s attempts to undermine the City of London with the so-called Robin Hood tax.

Before the meeting Mr Cameron said: ‘On the financial transactions tax I’m very clear, we are not going to get growth in Europe or Britain by introducing a new tax that would actually hit people as well as financial institutions.

I don’t think it is a sensible measure. I will not support it.’ However Mr Hollande refused to give any ground, saying the two leaders would have to ‘agree to disagree’.

In December Mr Cameron vetoed British involvement in a new EU treaty to set fiscal rules for the euro because fellow leaders refused to give Britain written guarantees that the UK financial sector would be protected.

But French officials have made clear that Mr Hollande will push much harder for a transactions tax than his predecessor  Mr Sarkozy.

Crucially he also rejected  Mr Cameron’s bid to urge him to delay the withdrawal of French combat troops from Afghanistan.

Mr Hollande said his plan to pull out combat troops by the end of the year was ‘non negotiable’.

By Jason Groves

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested Greece should hold a referendum

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested Greece should hold a referendum

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested Greece should hold a referendum on whether the beleaguered country should remain in the euro.

She made her wishes clear in an extraordinary phone call to Greek president Karolos Papoulias yesterday, saying the poll could be held alongside next month’s fresh elections for the Athens government on June 17.

But it was rejected by the Greeks and is bound to be seen as another attempt by the Germans to dictate affairs in Greece, where the public is already resentful over the economic powerhouse’s influence.

In any event, interim prime minister Panagiotis Pikramenos told the president that his caretaker administration simply does not have the authority to call a referendum.

Mrs Merkel reiterated the EU’s support for Greece’s efforts to overcome the crisis ahead of another emergency EU summit next week in Brussels.

Her move came as it emerged that Brussels is drawing up ‘emergency’ plans to cope with a Greek exit from the euro.

In a surprise intervention, EU trade commissioner Karel de Gucht said both the European Commission and the European Central Bank were working on contingency plans to protect other eurozone countries, such as Spain, Italy and Ireland, from collapse if Greece is forced out of the single currency in the coming weeks.

Mr de Gucht, the first senior EU official to admit that Brussels is planning for a so-called ‘Grexit’, insisted that the euro would survive even if Greece leaves.

He said: ‘A year and a half ago there maybe was a risk of a domino effect. But today there are in the European Central Bank, as well as in the Commission, services working on emergency scenarios if Greece shouldn’t make it.

‘A Greek exit does not mean the end of the euro, as some claim.’

Protesters clash with riot police during a general strike protest in Athens, in February over austerity cuts

Protesters clash with riot police during a general strike protest in Athens, in February over austerity cuts

Senior EU officials insist they want Greece to remain within the single currency, provided it sticks to the tough programme of austerity imposed as part of its bail-out deal.

Mr de Gucht suggested that Greece would be ‘finished’ if it dropped out of the euro and returned to the drachma.

Many analysts believe the value of Greece’s currency would fall by more than half overnight. Supporters of the idea say leaving the euro would give Greece the flexibility to restructure its economy and kickstart growth.

But Mr de Gucht said: ‘It [Greek exit] means that after a while you can no longer pay your officials who can no longer pay your pensions. All you can do is have your central bank to print money, and then you get hyperinflation. That would cause a cataclysm in other countries that are now under pressure.’

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